Weekly market analysis from 10th February 2025

This week’s economic calendar is packed with high impact events that could shape market sentiment, particularly for the USD, GBP, NZD, and CHF.

The week kicks off on Tuesday with Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech, which could provide insights into the BoE’s policy outlook, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, where traders will look for clues on future US monetary policy.

Midweek, all eyes turn to the US inflation data, with the Core CPI and headline CPI releases on Wednesday. Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% m/m, up from the previous 0.2%, while headline CPI is forecasted to slow to 0.3% from 0.4%. A stronger-than-expected reading could fuel speculation about Fed policy tightening, driving USD volatility. Powell’s second day of testimony later in the session will also be closely monitored for any additional policy signals.

On Thursday, New Zealand’s Inflation Expectations report is due early in the session, with the previous figure at 2.12%. Later, UK GDP m/m is expected to show a modest 0.1% growth, signaling a stable but sluggish economic recovery. Switzerland’s CPI is also on the docket, with expectations of a -0.1% m/m reading, unchanged from the previous release.

In the US, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures could provide further inflation insights, with Core PPI projected to rise by 0.3% m/m after a flat previous reading, while overall PPI is expected to remain steady at 0.2%. Weekly Unemployment Claims are forecasted to edge up slightly to 221K from 219K, offering another labor market snapshot.

The week wraps up on Friday with US Retail Sales data, which could impact expectations for consumer spending and overall economic strength. Core Retail Sales are forecasted to increase by 0.3% m/m, slightly below the previous 0.4%, while headline Retail Sales are expected to stagnate at 0.0%, down from 0.4%. A weaker-than-expected report could reinforce concerns about slowing consumer demand.

With multiple high-impact events, markets could see increased volatility, especially in forex and equities, as traders assess inflation trends, central bank outlooks, and economic momentum.

Here are 3 markets to watch this week

All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.

USD/CHF

If USD/CHF remains above the pivot point at 0.8730, the pair could potentially rise toward the resistance levels at 0.9200 and 0.9400. Alternatively, a break below 0.8730 may lead to further downside, targeting 0.8530 and 0.8400. The RSI is showing a mixed to bullish bias, suggesting the potential for upward momentum, with the pair likely to target 0.9200 and 0.9400 if the bullish trend continues.

GBP/USD

If GBP/USD remains below the pivot point at 1.2810, the pair could potentially fall towards the support levels at 1.2160 and 1.2035. Alternatively, a break above 1.2810 may lead to further upside, targeting the resistance levels at 1.3043 and 1.3260. With the RSI showing a mixed but bearish bias, the downside appears more likely, with the pair potentially targeting 1.2160 and 1.2035.

AUD/USD

If AUD/USD remains below the pivot point at 0.6450, the pair could potentially fall towards the support levels at 0.6070 and 0.5980. Alternatively, a break above 0.6450 may lead to further upside, targeting the resistance levels at 0.6540 and 0.6685. The RSI shows a lack of upward momentum, suggesting a higher likelihood of downside, with the pair likely to target 0.6070 and 0.5980 if the bearish trend continues.

This week's high impact market events

The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.

Time (GMT +2)

Tuesday 11th February

Wednesday 12th February

Thursday 13th February

Friday 14th February

How will you trade the markets this week?

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