Gold’s Spectacular Performance: Record Highs and its Future Potential
BY TIO Staff
|September 20, 2024Gold has had quite a rollercoaster journey this year, capturing the attention of traders and investors alike. After hitting another record high after the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, the precious metal experienced some intense volatility but so far continues to maintain a robust performance.
This article delves into the factors influencing gold’s recent movements, technical outlook, and whether market conditions allow it to continue to shine.
Gold’s Unprecedented Record Highs
Gold recently surged to a record high of $2,600 per ounce following a 50 basis points interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday 18th September 2024. This rally marked an approximate 30% increase year to date, underscoring gold’s robust appeal.
However, these gains in gold prices were short-lived. Shortly after reaching its peak, gold prices plummeted to previous levels. Despite this dramatic volatile price swing, the long-term bullish trend remained intact and the market is now trading at new record highs once again.
Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators
As of early Thursday, gold prices were defending the $2,550 level, finding some support after the intense volatility triggered by the Federal Reserve’s announcements. Traders are now focusing on upcoming economic indicators such as the US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data for clues as to what it might do next. These economic indicators will provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially influence future rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve.
At the time of this writing, TIOmarkets client sentiment shows that traders with open positions in gold are more bearish than bullish.
Technical Indicators, Resistance and Support Levels
From a technical standpoint, the uptrend on gold is still intact and traders are navigating through a landscape of key resistance and support levels. For the upside, there are no historical resistance levels to anticipate beyond $2,600, the round psychological numbers of $2,650, $2,700, and $2,750 might do. These levels could pose a challenge for the bulls aiming to push prices higher. Conversely, the support levels to watch are $2,550, $2,525, and $2,475. A breach of $2,475 could signal the start of a deeper price correction or even a short to medium term bearish trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical indicator found on our MT4 or MT5 trading platform remains in bullish territory on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts. This could indicate further upside, especially if upcoming economic data is favourable. However, the longer term view is showing signs of possible exhaustion, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating overbought conditions on the weekly and monthly timeframes.
The short-term technical outlook for gold (XAUUSD), suggests that the bulls are eyeing for higher highs, while the bears are eyeing the same price levels for a convincing rejection.
What does the future hold for Gold (XAUUSD)?
Gold’s journey this year has been nothing short of spectacular, with a resilient uptrend marked by multiple record highs. With that said, market conditions can change quickly, especially if the technical indicators show signs of exhaustion. If the bulls fail to hold the nearby key support levels, the market could see a deeper price correction. However, if the Fed continues to cut interest rates then the long-term outlook for gold could remain positive. Lower interest rates generally favour gold prices, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like the precious metal.
The fluctuating rates and economic data keep traders and investors on their toes, but the overall sentiment towards gold has so far been positive. What happens next remains to be seen and traders should be prepared for any scenario, remain vigilant and trade responsibly.
How will you trade Gold?
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