Weekly market report for 9th June 2025
BY TIOmarkets
|juin 10, 2025There are few high impact economic data releases this week, which will primarily be focused on the USD. The week includes inflation and employment data as well as the m/m GDP figures for the UK.
Lets recap on recent market developments and prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.
ECB cuts interest rates
The ECB reduced its key interest rate to 2% last week, Thursday 5th June, as part of more measures to stimulate economic growth in the eurozone. Despite previous measures, economic growth has remained sluggish, which prompted the central bank to take further action. This marks the eighth rate cut within a year and ECB President, Christine Lagarde, has indicated that the central bank might be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle.
It was a pivotal event for the EUR/USD, catalyzing a notable rally setting its sights on April’s highs. However, the upward momentum was short lived and the currency pair closed the week below Thursdays lows.
Traders are now closely monitoring for signs of support, and whether the recent bullish trend can be sustained.
USD weakness and its implications
Adding another layer to the EUR/USD narrative is the weakness observed in the USD so far this year. The currency is close to testing yearly lows again. The main themes causing weakness in the currency are the ongoing tariff tensions and contrasting monetary policy stances between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
Traders are now assessing the shifts in global risk sentiment and whether the trend of US Dollar depreciation will continue.
USDCAD makes new yearly low
The Bank of Canada decided to maintain its overnight rate at 2.75% on Wednesday, 4th June, citing the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations with the U.S.
The Central bank has provided forward guidance that a rate cut could be considered in the future, depending on how economic conditions evolve. With a softening economy and accelerating inflationary pressures, the BoC seems prepared to act if necessary to support the economy. However, some market commentators think that rates cut alone may not be sufficient to prevent an economic slowdown in Canada.
From a technical perspective, the yearly downtrend for the USD/CAD remains intact. The currency pair made a new yearly low last week, signaling potential further downside. However, conflicting technical and fundamental factors are creating a complex trading environment. So traders should remain cautious and monitor developments. As the appreciation of CAD may be due to a weakening US Dollar and stable crude oil prices, rather than due to CAD strength.
AUDUSD testing yearly highs
The AUD/USD pair has shown resilience over the past week, with bullish momentum building near the year-to-date (YTD) highs around the 0.6540 level.
Traders should stay alert for potential moves beyond the current trading range, into new yearly highs, as this could present significant trading opportunities. The currency pair may be poised for a breakout, and while bullish sentiment seems to be prevailing, significant headwinds do remain.
The RBA will make another interest rate announcement in July so traders would monitor upcoming economic data closely for clues as to whether there will be further rate cuts.
Silver (XAGUSD) reaches 12-year high
Silver broke out from October 2024’s highs last week, appreciating by nearly 9% to reach $36.00 per ounce. These price levels have not been seen in over a decade.
The bullish momentum was fueled by a combination of factors, including increased “safe-haven” demand, value-buying, and overall positive market sentiment for the precious metal.
XAGUSD has shown significant resilience in recent years, as support has consistently emerged whenever price made a minor pullback. This suggests that buyers are eager to enter the market on price dips and indicative of a robust underlying demand for silver.
Traders are now eyeing the psychologically important $40 price level as the next major resistance area. The overall market sentiment and price trend surrounding silver remains bullish, for now, but traders should remain vigilant because markets can turn at any time.
Market outlook
Moving forwards, we can expect several key themes to continue to influence the forex and precious metals markets:
- Central bank policies: The divergence between the ECB's rate cut and other central banks' stances will remain a crucial factor.
- Economic data releases: Upcoming inflation, employment, and GDP figures from the U.S. and UK will shape market sentiment.
- Global tariff tensions: Ongoing tariff negotiations and their potential impact on economic growth will affect risk sentiment and traders seeking assets with a “safe-haven” reputation.
- Commodity prices: Fluctuations in oil prices will continue to influence commodity-linked currencies, like the AUD and CAD.
Stay informed with our economic calendar
This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.
All Times are in GMT+3
Wednesday 11th June
| 3:30PM | USD | Core CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | CPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | CPI y/y |
Thursday 12th June
| 9:00AM | GBP | GDP m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core PPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | PPI m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 13th June
| 5:00PM | USD | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
| 5:00PM | USD | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations |
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
EUR/USD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.1440, the currency pair could fall towards the 1.1350 and 1.1370 support levels. Conversely, a move above 1.1440 could see the pair rise to the target levels at 1.1480 and 1.1460. The RSI is below the neutrality level of 50, and could potentially be signaling bearish momentum.
GBP/USD
If the price remains below the pivot at 1.3565, the currency pair could fall towards the 1.3490 and 1.3505 support levels. Conversely, a move above 1.3565 could see the pair rise to the target levels at 1.3600 and 1.3580. The RSI is approaching the neutrality level at 50.
Silver
If the price remains below the pivot at 36.80, the commodity could fall towards the 36.15 and 35.85 support levels. Conversely, a move above 36.80 could see it rise to the target levels at 37.50 and 37.15.The RSI is just below the neutrality area at 50.
How will you trade the markets this week?
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