Weekly market analysis from 20th January 2025
BY TIO Staff
|Januari 20, 2025This week’s high-impact economic events provide critical updates for the GBP, CAD, and JPY, alongside insights into the broader market outlook.
On Tuesday, the UK’s Claimant Count Change is expected to rise significantly to 10.3K from 0.3K, suggesting potential labor market strain. In Canada, inflation data dominates, with CPI m/m forecasted at -0.7% compared to a previous 0.0%, and trimmed CPI y/y and median CPI y/y both expected to moderate slightly. Later in the day, New Zealand reports CPI q/q, predicted to ease to 0.5% from 0.6%, hinting at potential shifts in monetary policy.
Thursday has a focus on Canadian retail performance, where Core Retail Sales m/m is projected to remain flat at 0.0%, and Retail Sales m/m could soften to 0.1% from 0.6%. Meanwhile, the US labor market update is anticipated, with Unemployment Claims expected to rise modestly to 220K from 217K.
Friday highlights key updates from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with the Policy Rate expected to rise to 0.50%. If the actual data announced is as forecasted, this will be the highest rate in 17 years. The Eurozone releases flash PMI data, with French and German manufacturing expected to improve slightly, while services PMI may see minimal changes. In the UK, flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services suggest a mixed economic trajectory. Lastly, US flash PMI data will conclude the week, with manufacturing projected at 49.4 and services signaling robust growth at 56.8.
Traders will monitor this week’s data closely for signals of market trends and central bank policy directions across key currencies.
Here are 3 markets to watch this week
All technical analysis is provided by Trading Central.
EUR/USD
If EUR/USD remains below the pivot point at 1.0630, the pair could potentially fall toward the 1.0080 and 0.9880 support levels. Alternatively, a break above the pivot at 1.0630 may lead to further upside with targets at 1.0780 and 1.0940. The RSI is more or less neutral.
Gold
If Gold remains below the pivot point at 2720.00, the price could potentially fall toward the 2585.00 and 2540.00 support levels. Alternatively, a break above the pivot at 2720.00 may lead to further upside with targets at 2790.00 and 2870.00. The RSI is more or less neutral and it has been converging with price since December.
AUD/USD
If AUD/USD remains below the pivot point at 0.6550, the pair could potentially fall toward the 0.5980 and 0.5740 support levels. Alternatively, a break above the pivot at 0.6550 may lead to further upside with targets at 0.6685 and 0.6785. The RSI is neutral however there are recent signs of divergence with price.
This week's high impact market events
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
Time (GMT +3)
Tuesday 21st January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 9:00 AM | GBP | Claimant Count Change |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | |
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y | |
| 11:45 PM | NZD | CPI q/q |
Thursday 23rd January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| 3:30 PM | CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| CAD | Retail Sales m/m | |
| USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 24th January
| Time | Currency | Event |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate |
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference |
| 10:15 AM | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| EUR | French Flash Services PMI | |
| 10:30 AM | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| EUR | German Flash Services PMI | |
| 11:30 AM | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| GBP | Flash Services PMI | |
| 4:45 PM | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI |
| USD | Flash Services PMI |
How will you trade the markets this week?
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