Market Analysis for 16th June 2025

In the past week, significant movements have been observed across various financial markets, including crude oil, EUR/USD and the FTSE 100. This week is packed with high impact economic events, including interest rate announcements, employment and inflation data.

Lets review recent market developments and prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.

• Crude oil surged approximately 13% on Friday to $77.60 per barrel due to fears of military escalation in the middle east.
• Geopolitical tensions and demand for “safe‑haven” assets drove gold prices higher and strengthened the USD.
• EUR/USD makes a new yearly high.
• GBP and EUR found some pressure from USD strength last week.
• The FTSE 100 is close to making new all time highs.

EUR/USD makes new yearly high

The pair tested key resistance levels near 1.1470 and managed to break through briefly last Thursday. The RSI on the daily and weekly timeframes is close to overbought territory, which suggests the price might have limited upside potential. The ongoing narrative of contrasting economic recoveries between the U.S. and Europe, and the current risk-on sentiment strengthening the USD is playing a pivotal role.

Another test of last week's highs might see some follow through. However, an overhead resistance area is close by at 1.1700, which has not been revisited since 2021. The next significant support areas being at 1.1200 and 1.1050.

Traders are now looking forward to this week's U.S. retail sales data, as well as the Feds interest rate announcement on Wednesday, 18th June, to act as catalysts for further price moves.

GBP/USD remains resilient

Concerns about the UK's economic resilience are still in focus. Last week's employment and GDP data was released and both were less than expected. Traders are now looking forward to the Bank of England’s (BOE) Official Bank Rate, which is on Thursday, 19th June.

Technically, market structure is still displaying a robust bullish trend with potential resistance levels at 1.3650 and 1.3750. The key price level to watch is around the 1.3450 mark. A break below it might shift sentiments towards the downside, and the next significant support levels are around 1.3300 and 1.3150.

Crude Oil (USOIL) prices surge

Crude oil rallied sharply last week after Israel’s strike on Iran. The price surged approximately 13% towards $77.60 per barrel on Friday, due to fears of military escalation and supply disruptions. Bringing the total price change for the week up to approximately 20%.

Technically, market structure is still indicating a bearish bias. The downtrend since the second half of 2022 is still intact and the RSI is positioned in overbought territory on the daily timeframe. Additionally, the OPEC+ members are continuing with their previously agreed plans to increase production. However, markets can turn quickly, especially when the fundamentals change. A break above $77.60 could see further upside potential with the next resistance area being around the $81 mark.

Traders should monitor geopolitical events, and shifts in OPEC’s output strategy closely and be prepared for more price volatility.

Gold (XAUUSD) demand ticks higher

Geopolitical tensions and “safe‑haven” demand drove gold prices nearer to all time highs last week. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows speculative net long positions rising for the 4th week in a row.

Technically, the long term uptrend in gold is still intact and the fundamental outlook remains positive. However, the RSI is in overbought territory on the weekly timeframe, which suggests the rally may be showing signs of exhaustion. Resistance at $3,450 and $3,500 per ounce is also close by, so traders should remain vigilant for a rejection and sudden price corrections.

This week's Federal Funds rate and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, 18th June, have the potential to act as catalysts for the next move.

FTSE 100 (UK100) close to all time highs

The FTSE 100 ticked up this week supported by energy, defensive and cyclical stocks, and came close to making new all time highs. Since the FTSE 100 has a significant weighting of oil and gas companies, the UK stock market index benefited from the recent rise in oil prices. The government also signaled that it intends to increase defense and health sector spending.

The Bank of England (BOE) will meet on Thursday, 19th of June, for a monetary policy summit and announce the Official Bank Rate. Although no changes to interest rates are expected, this week's inflation, retail sales and any BOE forward guidance, might act as a catalyst to push the index higher. UK data related to the economy has been sending mixed signals recently, so traders should monitor events closely.

Be prepared for volatility in the coming weeks, with economic data, central bank guidance, and geopolitics all influencing the markets.

Stay informed with our economic calendar

This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.

All Times are in GMT+3

Tuesday 17th June

Wednesday 18th June

Thursday 19th June

Friday 20th June

How will you trade the markets this week?

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